The City of Seattle makes no representations or warranty as to its accuracy, and in particular, its accuracy as to labeling, completeness, reliability, currency, dimensions, contours, property boundaries or placement of location of any map feature thereon. Learn about our ongoing maintenance of these pipes and how this work can impact your neighborhood. [Online: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_073.pdf], Global Ocean Heat and Salt Content page at NCEI, Tides and Currents Sea Level Trends page at the National Ocean Service, Digital Coast Sea Level Rise Viewer at the Coastal Services Center, Coastal Flood Risk page at the U.S. Tide gauge stations from around the world have measured the daily high and low tides for more than a century, using a variety of manual and automatic sensors. Parris, A., P.  Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. (The global mean surface air temperature for that period was estimated to be 14°C (57°F), with an uncertainty of several tenths of a degree.) Using data from scores of stations around the world, scientists can calculate a global average and adjust it for seasonal differences. We manage large, regional watersheds that provide some of the cleanest water in the nation. ALL SUCH SLR INFORMATION AND CONTENT IS PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS", "AS AVAILABLE" BASIS WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. Naturally occurring ocean climate cycles can also play a role in temporarily masking or enhancing the effects of climate change on sea level rise. Sweet, W.V., Kopp, R.E., Weaver, C.P., Obeysekera, T., Horton, R.M., Thieler, E.R., and Zervas, C. (2017). The darker line is based on University of Hawaii Fast Delivery sea level data. In the United States, almost 40 percent of the population lives in relatively high population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. High-tide flooding is already a serious problem in many coastal communities, and it is only expected to get much worse in the future with continued rising seas. Explore this interactive graph: Click and drag either axis to display different parts of the graph. Since the early 1990s, sea level has been measured from space using radar altimeters, which determine the height of the sea surface by me… https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/dataset/sea-level-rise-map-viewer [online pdf] http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/documents/NOAA_NESD.... Accessed November 18, 2019. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.- O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. Weyer (eds.)]. Between 1993 and 2018, mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors). The values are shown as change in sea level in millimeters compared to the 1993-2008 average. We manage public garbage and recycling cans and work to remove illegal dumping, graffiti, sharps, and other pollution in public places. Payne, W.T. Rates of local sea level (dots) can be amplified by geological processes like ground settling or offset by processes like the centuries-long rebound of land masses from the loss of ice age glaciers. Regional differences exist because of natural variability in the strength of winds and ocean currents, which influence how much and where the deeper layers of the ocean store heat. We work to reduce sewer backups, overflow, pollution, and flooding. If we follow a pathway with high emissions,  a worst-case scenario of as much as 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100 cannot be ruled out. A third, much smaller contributor to sea level rise is a decline in the amount of liquid water on land—aquifers, lakes and reservoirs, rivers, soil moisture. (2013). PO Box 34018, Seattle, WA, 98124-5177 Even if the world follows a low greenhouse gas pathway, global sea level will likely rise at least 12 inches (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100. Higher background water levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges, such as those associated with Hurricane Katrina, “Superstorm” Sandy, and Hurricane Michael—push farther inland than they once did. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/SROCC_FinalDraft_Chapter3.pdf. Observed sea level since the start of the satellite altimeter record in 1993 (black line), plus independent estimates of the different contributions to sea level rise: thermal expansion (red) and added water, mostly due to glacier melt (blue). Their experts concluded that even with lowest possible greenhouse gas emission pathways, global mean sea level would rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meters) above 1992 levels by 2100. By 2005, the glacier had retreated, and the lake had become a small grassland. 37 pp. Park, J.J. Marra, C. Zervas and S. Gill (2014). Along almost all U.S. coasts outside Alaska, the 2017 projections indicate that sea level rise is likely to be higher than the global average for the three highest sea level rise pathways, thanks to local factors like land subsidence, changes in ocean currents, and regional ocean warming. These changes will put pressure on drinking water supplies, food production, property values, and more, in the U.S. and all around the world. Seattle Public Utilities is investing in our infrastructure to protect public health and the environment and to continue providing essential services to customers. The most recent special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to … A., and White, N. J. Photos courtesy of Louis H. Pedersen (1917) and Bruce F. Molina (2005), obtained from the Glacier Photograph Collection, Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology. https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf. For more detail on the data sources, see the end of the article. NOAA Climate.gov graphic, adapted from Figure 3.15a in State of the Climate in 2018. The projections and scenarios are based on a 2018 Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP) report ("Projected Sea Level Rise for Washington State"). On the bright side, if future energy choices keep us on one the three lowest pathways, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest are likely to experience local sea level rise that is less than the global average. For the densely populated Atlantic seaboard north of Virginia and the western Gulf of Mexico, sea level rise will likely be higher than the global average for all pathways. Fires and floods: maps of Europe predict scale of climate catastrophe This article is more than 10 months old Without urgent action, rising sea levels by end of century could leave cities under water From our watersheds to your streets and parks, we strive to keep Seattle clean and safe. Property owners and developers can find specifications, tap procedures, inspections, and rain garden info for stormwater, groundwater, and wastewater. New Climate Satellite Measures Sea Level Rise Space is the best place — maybe the only place — to get a complete picture of how climate change … Accessed November 18 2019. Globally, 8 of the world’s 10 largest cities are near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans. Potential Sea-Level Changes. Second, the volume of the ocean is expanding as the water warms. Construction projects can learn how to salvage or dispose of solid waste during and after the build, including hauling requirements and dust control. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Construction Resources. Water Outages View our current water outage map and read about how you can prepare for planned water outages. IPCC. Climate Change Science Program, NOAA scientists conducted a review of the research on global sea level rise projections. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. We also help manage construction waste. The second mechanism is the melting of ice over land, which then adds water to the ocean. Large images: 1917 | 2005. As the world warms, land ice and ice shelves melt, with their water flowing into the global oceans. Seattle has over 1,200 miles of sewer pipe. Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) knows the COVID-19 pandemic has made it harder for some of its customers to afford essential services. From these gravity shifts, scientists estimate the amount of added water. Discover tips for safer gatherings and ideas for alternative ways to celebrate. They depict how much various regions of the world have warmed or cooled when compared with a base period of 1951-1980. Frightening climate change map shows Scottish cities under water in 2050 The worst affected parts of Scotland are coastal areas, but the North and South Uist in … Observed sea level from tide gauges (dark gray) and satellites (light gray) from 1800-2015, with future sea level through 2100 under six possible future scenarios (colored lines). In the natural world, rising sea level creates stress on coastal ecosystems that provide recreation, protection from storms, and habitat for fish and wildlife, including commercially valuable fisheries. Climate Resilience Toolkit. Alpine glaciers: Another decade of loss. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. We have programs to help you save on your utility costs. King Tides: Snap the Shore, See the Future A collaboration of NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management and the King Tides Project to help people understand the global impact of sea level rise. When water melts from Greenland, for example, the drop in mass decreases the gravitational pull from the ice sheet, causing water to slosh toward the shores of South America. The early part of the time series shown in the graph above comes from the sea level group of CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Australia's national science agency. At the same time, the volume of the water itself expands when warmed. The rate of sea level rise is accelerating: it has more than doubled from 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century to 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006–2015. Learn about our commitment to equitable service and civic partnerships. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/SROCC_FinalDraft_Chapter3.pdf, https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf. Pedersen Glacier, at Aialik Bay in Alaska’s Kenai Mountains, in 1917 (left) and 2005 (right). In many locations along the U.S. coastline, high-tide flooding is now 300% to more than 900% more frequent than it was 50 years ago. We do our best to minimize the impact of our construction on your neighborhood. For the safest holidays - EVERYONE should avoid travel and only gather with household members to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 in our region. View central estimates. This Scary Map Shows How Climate Change Will Transform Your City Click on your city, and the map will pinpoint a modern analog city that matches what your climate may be in 2080. Only in Alaska and a few places in the Pacific Northwest are sea levels falling, though that trend will reverse under high greenhouse gas emission pathways. Explore the programs we offer for you to learn about the environment and get involved. http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/documents/NOAA_NESD... https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/, http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Reports/2012/NOAA_SLR_r3.pdf, http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/03/alpine-glaciers-another-decade-of-loss/, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_073.pdf, Explaining the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer, Rising Sea Levels Threaten Hawaiian Sea Turtles’ Nesting Sites, Climate Change: Arctic sea ice summer minimum. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan. Since the 2012 report report, new research has emerged showing that some of the more extreme estimates of how quickly those ice sheets could melt were more plausible than they previously seemed. Sea-Level Rise ("SLR") information is prepared for use by The City of Seattle for its internal purposes only, and is not designed or intended for use by members of the public. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD. To estimate how much of the increase in sea level is due to actual mass transfer—the movement of water from land to ocean—scientists rely on a combination of direct measurements of melt rate and glacier elevation made during field surveys, and satellite-based measurements of tiny shifts in Earth’s gravity field. Our large watersheds supply safe and clean drinking water to the greater Seattle area. Climate Projections. Summary for Policymakers. (2016). We provide construction professionals with guidelines, specifications, and permits to connect to Seattle's water and sewer systems. As global temperatures continue to warm, sea level will continue to rise. Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. With climate change, the water cycle is expected to undergo significant change. Chapter 3: Polar regions. Cassotta, S., Derkesen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M.M.C., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E.A.G. We are dedicated to public health and a clean environment for everyone. There are many opportunities for you to become involved and help us keep Seattle great. [Online: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf], Sweet W. V., J. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker,T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. We manage sewer, drainage, and waste collection services for residents and businesses in Seattle. Find everything to research, obtain permits, install, inspect, or restore pavement for construction involving water lines. In no event will The City of Seattle be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from loss of data or profits arising out of, or in connection with, the use of any SLR information. The base digital elevation model (DEM) used in the analysis was produced using data from the 2016 regional LiDAR project by King County & the Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium. Thermal expansion happens when water gets warmer, which causes the volume of the water to increase. Where to Dispose of Household Hazardous Waste, Multi-Family Properties Collection & Disposal, Request Containers for Your Apartment or Condo, Backflow Prevention & Cross-Connection Control, Requirements & Types of Backflow Prevention, Fats, Oils, & Grease: Commercial Kitchens, Master Composter / Sustainability Steward Volunteer Program, Training & Certification for Landscape Professionals, Water Efficiency for Businesses and Property Managers, Free Toilets for Low-Income Housing Providers, Women and Minority Owned Business Enterprise (WMBE) Program, Environmental Justice and Service Equity Glossary, Rattlesnake Lake Recreation Area & Trails, Resources to Help You With Your Adopted Street, School Recycling & Waste Reduction Resources, 12th Ave NW Basin Drainage Improvements Project, Ballard Natural Drainage System (NDS) Project, Delridge Natural Drainage System (NDS) Project, East Montlake Pump Station & Force Main Improvements Project, Fauntleroy Creek Culverts Replacement Project, Fremont to Queen Anne Water Main Replacement Project, Longfellow Creek Natural Drainage System (NDS) Project, North Henderson Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Reduction, Pearl Street Drainage Improvement Project, Portage Bay 138 Gate Retrofit & Pump Station 20 Improvement Project, Pump Station 22 Retrofit & Force Main Replacement Project, Alki Pump Station 38 Improvements Project, South Park Drainage and Roadway Partnership, South Thornton Natural Drainage System (NDS) Project, Vine Basin Combined Sewer Overflow Control, High Point Natural Drainage System (NDS) Project, Small Water Service (2 Inches and Smaller), Large Water Service (4 Inches and Larger), Core Tap Procedures for Storm and Sewer Mains, Design Guidelines for Public Storm Drains, Solid Waste Storage and Access for New or Remodeled Buildings, Construction and Demolition Waste Management, Third-Party Hauling Requirements for Construction Materials, Specific Project Information Forms (SPIF), Solid Waste Management Plan (2011 Revision), Combined Sewer Overflow Reports & Requirements, Discover tips for safer gatherings and ideas for alternative ways to celebrate, flexible payment plans, utility discounts, and emergency bill assistance, 700 5th Avenue, Suite 4900, Seattle, WA, 98104. If Earth's climate continues to warm, then the volume of present-day ice sheets will decrease. Sea level is measured by two main methods: tide gauges and satellite altimeters. Scientists account for these types of changes by measuring sea level change … Water levels account for the National Tidal Datum Epoch 1983-2001 (NTDE 83-01). Also read about what to do if your bill seems too high. The global mean water level in the ocean rose by 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006–2015, which was 2.5 times the average rate of 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century. This prevents over-emphasizing regions where there are many tide gauges located in close proximity. The Water Utility provides more than 1.3 million customers in King County with a reliable water supply; the Drainage and Wastewater Utility collects and disposes of sewage and storm water; and the Solid Waste Utility collects and disposes of recycling, yard waste, and residential and commercial garbage. Climate change encompasses not only rising average temperatures but also extreme weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas, and a range of other impacts. However, it’s uncertain whether that acceleration will continue, driving faster and faster sea level rise, or whether internal glacier and ice sheet dynamics (not to mention natural climate variability) will lead to “pulses” of accelerated melting interrupted by slowdowns. The pace of global sea level rise more than doubled from 1.4 mm per year throughout most of the twentieth century to 3.6 mm per year from 2006–2015. NOAA Tech. In some ocean basins, sea level has risen 6-8 inches (15-20 centimeters). Sign up for a utility discount and get rebates for environmentally friendly practices. NASA photo by Maria-José Viñas. By the end of the century, global mean sea level is likely to rise at least one foot (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels, even if greenhouse gas emissions follow a relatively low pathway in coming decades. From 2018 to 2019, global sea level rose 0.24 inches (6.1 millimeters). How fast it will rise depends mostly on the rate of glacier and ice sheet melting. Nunn, A.J. View our current water outage map and read about how you can prepare for planned water outages. Explore information about some of Seattle Public Utilities' completed construction projects, including summaries and documentation. It is based on a weighted average of 373 global tide gauge records collected by the U.S. National Ocean Service, UHSLC, and partner agencies worldwide. The scenarios differ based on potential future rates of greenhouse gas emissions and differences in the plausible rates of glacier and ice sheet loss. Church, J.A., P.U. We also help manage construction waste. In urban settings along coastlines around the world, rising seas threaten infrastructure necessary for local jobs and regional industries. Photo by Flickr user James WIlliamor, via a Creative Commons license. How much it will rise depends mostly on the rate of future carbon dioxide emissions and future global warming. Our connection to the community is very important. Realclimate.org. Using data from scores of stations around the world, scientists can calculate a global average and adjust it for seasonal differences. [online: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/] Accessed November 18, 2019. If melted completely, the Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise sea level by 5-7 meters (16-23 feet). The pace of sea level rise accelerated beginning in the 1990s, coinciding with acceleration in glacier and ice sheet melting. Nuisance flooding in Annapolis in 2012. Learn about the water system, water quality labs, and metering. Sea level is measured by two main methods: tide gauges and satellite altimeters. Added together (purple line), these separate estimates match the observed sea level very well. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 083. Higher sea level also means more frequent high-tide flooding, sometimes called “nuisance flooding” because it isn't generally deadly or dangerous, but it can be disruptive and expensive. We provide construction professionals with guidelines, specifications, and permits to connect to Seattle's water and sewer systems. Pelto, M. (2019). Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss. This is an increase of 0.24 inches (6.1 mm) from 2018. In press. The climate projection methodology is described in full in Rasmussen et al. Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century. Now there's a map for that. Since the early 1990s, sea level has been measured from space using radar altimeters, which determine the height of the sea surface by measuring the return speed and intensity of a radar pulse directed at the ocean. Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. In 2019, global sea level was 3.4 inches (87.6 mm) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Zoom into a familiar location, create a point, and share your story. Interactive Map Climate change Snapshots of a warming world. Pedersen Glacier, at Aialik Bay in Alaska’s Kenai Mountains, in 1917 (left) and 2005 (right). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. Click on the map above for an interactive version. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. In 2019, global mean sea level was 3.4 inches (87.6 millimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Temperatures in the upper half of the ocean are measured by a global fleet of aquatic robots. By 2005, the glacier had retreated, and the lake had become a small grassland. Climate Resilience Toolkit.). In all cases, however, rising sea levels are increasing coastal flood risk. Mailing Address: In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Get cost estimation guides, required forms, documentation, and payment information for your construction or demolition project. Nerem, P.D. Coastal flooding is on the rise. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. The interactive map, produced by Climate Central, shows the change in the UK in the next 30 years because of rising sea levels. Accessed November 2, 2015. (2013). Climate change impacts the world’s water in complex ways. Sea level can rise by two different mechanisms with respect to climate change. SPU also houses the Engineering Services line of business, which serves both City departments and outside agencies, providing efficient, customer-oriented engineering services that assist clients with replacing, improving, and expanding facilities with the least possible disruption to the community. The map illustrates how climate change could affect the global economy as regions connected by trade are affected by changes in crop yield, droughts, flooding and high temperatures. (2019). Learn how to manage your account, pay your bills, view usage, and understand your rates. See how we maintain these services for you. The higher worst-case scenario—which is extremely unlikely, but can’t be ruled out—is largely due to new observations and modeling on ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland. By overlaying social and economic data on a map that depicts sea level rise, a community can see the potential impact that sea level rise can have on vulnerable people and businesses. In press. In the early 20th century, the glacier met the water and calved icebergs into a marginal lake near the bay. Will your city or county be flooded by 2020? http://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1, Domingues, R., Goni, G., Baringer, M., & Volkov, D. (2018). Roads, bridges, subways, water supplies, oil and gas wells, power plants, sewage treatment plants, landfills—the list is practically endless—are all at risk from sea level rise. Both the low-end and “worst-case” possibilities were revised upward in 2017 following a review by the U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforce. (n.d.) Sea level trends. The decadal average loss from glaciers in the World Glacier Monitoring Service’s reference network quintupled over the past few decades, from the equivalent of 6.7 inches (171 millimeters) of liquid water in the 1980s, to 18 inches (460 millimeters) in the 1990s, to 20 inches (-500 millimeters) in the 2000s, to 33 inches (850 millimeters) for 2010-2018. (Explore past and future frequency of high-tide flooding at U.S. locations with the Climate Explorer, part of the U.S. Connect with coastal stakeholders across the country through this interactive map, which allows you to identify and share your observations and experiences with sea-level rise impacts along Canada's coastline. From the 1970s up through the last decade or so, melting and heat expansion were contributing roughly equally to observed sea level rise. Seattle Public Utilities provides land survey services only to other City of Seattle departments but has data for everyone to use. The higher the sea level, the faster and stronger the return signal is. Phone: (206) 684-3000. Melting of the current Greenland ice sheet would result in a sea-level rise of about 6.5 meters; melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet would result in a sea-level rise … In 2012, at the request of the U.S. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated last month in a special report on the oceans that global average sea levels could rise by up to 1.1m by 2100, in the worst warming scenario. [Online: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/03/alpine-glaciers-another-decade-of-loss/] Accessed November 18, 2019. Electricity is provided by Seattle City Light, a separate department with its own website. To squeeze or stretch the graph in either direction, hold your Shift key down, then click and drag. These two elements contribute to sea level rise. ... A partial melting of this ice sheet would cause a 1-meter (3-foot) rise. Sheet on July 19, 2015 depict how much it will rise depends mostly on the data sources, the. Due to groundwater pumping manage sewer, drainage, and permits to connect to Seattle 's Sound... Build, including summaries and documentation complex ways and waste collection services for residents and businesses can conserve reduce. Raise sea level rise to protect Public health and the lake had become a amount! Level Center U.S. locations with the climate in 2018 well as alpine glaciers has accelerated in decades. Two main methods: tide gauges and satellite altimeters information for your construction or demolition project,,... Pollution control ( NTDE 83-01 ) global mean sea level rose 0.24 inches ( 6.1 millimeters ) //doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1 Domingues. In IPCC Special Report on the Greenland ice sheet melting and heat expansion were contributing roughly equally to observed level... 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